Orlando Real Estate Market Report

Orlando home sales are up, prices are down

(December 8, 2008 – Orlando, FL) The numbers are in and Orlando area homes sales are up while prices are trending downward. Osceola County for the second month leads the Orlando area in increased sales activity. Sales in that county jumped an impressive 47.26 percent in October 2008 compared to October 2007; last month, the comparison increase was an astonishing 77.38 percent.

Throughout the entire Orlando area, members of the Orlando Regional Realtor® Association were involved in the sale of 10.00 percent more homes in October of this year than last: 1,199 to 1,090. The median sales price of those homes sold in October declined by 24.26 percent to $178,000 when compared October 2007’s median price of $235,000.

The number of pending sales, considered by housing economists to be a reliable predicator of future sales activity, continued its upward trend to 3,316. There are 72.43 percent more homes under contract (3,316) this month than compared to October 2007 (1,923), and those anticipated closings are expected to continue shortening the current year-to-date sales gap of -16.01 percent by year end.

While there was a decrease in the median price in October, which typically results in an increased affordability index, this month’s increase in the interest rate actually drove the Orlando affordability index down slightly to 122.68 percent. (The area’s affordability index is nevertheless excellent: An affordability index of 99 percent means that buyers earning the state-reported median income are 1 percent short of the income necessary to purchase a median-priced home. Conversely, an affordability index that is over 100 means that median-income earners make more than is necessary to qualify for a median-priced home.) Buyers who earn the reported median income of $51,905 can qualify to purchase one of 13,166 homes in Orange and Seminole counties currently listed in the local multiple listing service (MLS) for $218,377 or less.

The first time homebuyer affordability index decreased slightly to 87.24 percent from September’s 87.99 percent. The area’s average interest rate was 6.30 percent in October 2008, up from 6.00 in September yet down from 6.39 percent in August.

Homes of all types spent an average of 111 days on the market before being sold in October 2008, and the average home sold for 93.08 percent of its listing price (a decrease from September 2008’s 94.38 percent). In October 2007 those numbers were 111 and 93.97 percent, respectively.

The majority of single-family homes (173) that changed hands in October 2008 were sold in the $200,000 - $250,000 price range; another 115 homes sold in October in both the $140,000 - $160,000 category and the $160,000 - $180,000 category. Five hundred forty homes sold for less than $200,000 in October, and 177 sold for more than $300,000. On the far ends of the scale, eight homes were sold for $1 million or more (yet again the least this year) while 28 homes sold for less than $50,000 (yet again the most this year).

Inventory

There are currently 24,657 homes available for purchase through the MLS. Inventory decreased by 33 homes from October, which means that 33 more homes left the market than entered the market. Compared to last year, the October 2008 inventory level is 6.35 percent lower than it was in October 2007 (26,330).

The inventory level reflects a 20.56-month supply at the current pace of sales, which is up from the 17.71-month supply recorded in September. Altogether, inventory months-of-supply has declined 64.98 percent since January 2008.

There are 18,127 single-family homes currently listed in the MLS, a number that is 1,544 (7.85 percent) less than this time last year. As usual most (2,875) are listed in the $200,000 - $250,000 price range. Condos currently make up 4,365 offerings in the MLS, while duplexes/town homes/villas make up the remaining 2,165. Most condos (542) are priced at $100,000 - $120,000. The majority of duplexes/town homes/villas (347) are listed in the $200,000 - $250,000 price category.

Condos and Town Homes/Duplexes/Villas

The sales of condos in the Orlando area for the second month saw a slight month-over-month increase: A total of 120 condos changed hands in October of this year compared to 117 in October of last year for an improvement of 2.56 percent. Year to date, condo sales are down 37.77 percent, with 1,183 condos sold so far in 2008 compared to 1,901 sold through the same time in 2007.

In October, the most (17) condos that changed hands were in the $100,000 - $120,000 price category. Fourteen condos sold for less than $50,000 in October, the most in a single month this year.

Orlando homebuyers purchased 95 duplexes, town homes, and villas in October 2008, which is a 1.06 percent increase from October 2007 when 94 of these alternative housing types were purchased (in September, the month-over-month increase was a whopping 70.31 percent). Year-to-date, duplex, town home, and villa sales are down 12.31 percent. The majority (17) of duplexes, town homes, and villas sold in October 2008 fell into the $120,000 - $140,000 price category, while another 16 sold in the $200,000 - $250,000 range.

Home Sales in Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole Counties.

Sales of existing homes within the Orlando four-county Area (Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole counties) in October were up by 15.04 percent when compared to October of last year. Throughout the entire MSA, 1,545 homes were sold in October 2008 compared with 1,343 in October 2007. Year to date, sales in the MSA are down by 14.79 percent, with 14,949 homes sold far in 2008 compared to 17,544 sold through October 2007.

Seminole County’s October 2008 sales decreased 0.78 percent over that of October 2007 (256 to 258), while Orange County increased 12.63 percent (731 to 649). Lake County saw an 11.49 percent improvement in the number of sales in October 2008 compared to October 2007 (262 to 235), and Osceola County again experienced an impressive monthly increase: 47.26 percent increase (296 to 201).

Each county’s year-to-date sales comparisons are as follows:

Lake: 8.00 percent below 2007 (2,507 homes sold to date in 2008 compared to 2,725 in 2007);
Orange: 16.01 percent below 2007 (7,313 homes sold to date in 2008 compared to 8,707 in 2007);
Osceola: 3.97 percent below 2007 (2,271 homes sold to date in 2008 compared to 2,365 in 2007); and
Seminole: 23.73 percent below 2007 (2,858 sold to date in 2008 compared to 3,747 in 2007).